Archive for August 12th, 2007

My Solution for SF

San Francisco has problems. Housing is pricing everyone out (including the celebrated “creative class”), crime is up dramatically and the transit system is total crap. The second two problems are caused, for the most part, by underfunded city services. I the first problem I see a solution.

We should start taxing the crap out the people buying $2million plus homes. We should raise property taxes (currently illegal in CA, but this is a fantasy anyway) a lot until people stop buying these homes, because it seems like demand is so high that the prices won’t keep people away. The city could take the money raised and invest it in Muni, SFPD and figuring out ways to get people to stop converting to condos and start building more rental property.

The fact is that for some bizarre reason everyone is convinced that taxing the rich will take away their incentive to generate all this wonderful value. Larry Ellison makes $50 million a year. That is six hundred times as much as a rank and file engineer at Oracle (1200 teacher salaries). Would Larry quit and Oracle fall apart if we taxed him 80%? I think $10 million a year would be plenty, and $40 million is money better used improving the bay area for everyone, rather than building more fake japanese villages.

Why bailouts are bad

UPDATE: read this, these are the people getting rich while people lose their homes:

The consumer has to be an idiot to take on those loans,” he said. “But it has been one of our best-performing investments.”

Right now there is a lot of talk going around that the government should somehow bailout people in sub-prime mortgages who are losing their homes. First off, I am against people losing their homes in a situation where they we basically scammed into a loan they could not afford. And no one should be punished with homelessness for what was basically a scam rich people came up with to make more money from middle and lower class people (mortgage-backed securities). But there are better ways to prevent homelessness than this.

I am not a finance guru, but here is how mortgages work, or rather worked (oversimplified). The old way was this: a lender has a lot of money. In the case of a bank this is actually the money deposited by the banks customers. The theory of any loan is that a bank loans money as an investment, because the interest rate guaranties that they the money they invest (the loan) will earn a certain return. The risk is reduced because the bank has the house in case the home buyer cannot pay their mortgage. Still, banks traditionally manage this risk, because it is not certain that house will retain the value to cover the loan. In addition foreclosure usually means that a bank will lose a lot of the potential profit of the loan in lost interest payments. This is way traditionally getting a mortgage was not simple. You needed to prove you could pay the payments now and in the future, you needed good credit and a large down payment, all to reduce the risk a bank takes.

The new way is different. A lender (sometimes a bank) sells a mortgage to a home buyer. They then immediately sell the loan to someone else for a profit. The buyer of the loan then packaged it with many other loans and sold it as a security, like a bond. The risk was then bought by a variety of large investors, mostly hedge funds because they securities were considered high risk. The first tier lender and the bank took no risk because they sold the risk off. As you can see, for lenders it was very hard to see any mortgage as too risky, because the next sucker in the chain would buy it anyway. As a result very aggressive sales took place, because the goal of the lender wasn’t to make sure they would not lose their money, but to make sure that they sold a mortgage. So they started selling them with no down payment, very poor credit and with outrageous terms to get the monthly payments low enough to convince the buyer they could afford a house way out of their range.
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Don’t bail out lenders, hedge funds

The people that got us into this mess. These people were running a ponzi scheme and they knew it. Some major hedge funds are going bust do to their involvement in mortgage-backed securities. The people running these funds made a killing, and they don’t deserve our sympathy. The “ownership society” was a scam, a way to convince people that the only way to be part of the dream was to own a home. The message was that renting was “pissing your money away” but no one followed up with the truth that buying a house you can’t afford is much worse. Renting is not waste, you spend the money on a home to live in.